Are The Positive Growth Trends in The Construction Industry Threatened by Geopolitical Changes?

It seems that the long-term forecast of developments in the field of construction in Europe and the United States, is all in all positive.

Experts have predicted an overall increase in demand for construction products, caused by an increase in the number of construction sites. Of course, this forecast can't be taken as 100% true, but in the next few years steady growth should keep track across Europe, especially in Ireland, UK, Sweden and Germany. In the United States almost all construction activity can be narrowed down to these five letters TEXAS!

The European construction market can be divided into the following segments:

Western Europe (Germany, France, Belgium, France, UK, Ireland, the Netherlands and Switzerland)

Here especially, the macro-political situation will be visible, primarily in Germany, which has the strongest economy with a stable projected yearly growth of 1.2%, by 2017. Ireland follows Germany with an amazing increase of 6% in the construction sector.

The Scandinavian countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden)

How EUROCONSTRUCT predicts, there will be a significant growth in Scandinavian countries over the next three years. Success was predicted even for Denmark, which was hit the hardest by the global economic crisis in this region.

Southern Europe (Italy, Portugal, Spain)

This group is the most sensitive in terms of further progress. They are experiencing huge problems with their economies, which is particularly the case with Spanish companies as they are participating in a lot of big construction jobs taking place in the Middle East (such as the construction of railways and underground railways in Saudi Arabia). So they rather prefer to preserve their current position than to risk it all by attempting to "jump out" of the existing frame.

Central and Eastern Europe (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia)

The future of these markets according to the predictions is bright, as analysts expect growth in this region of at least 4%, thanks to investment in transport infrastructure and energy. These areas also present a big construction opportunity for railways and railway infrastructure. In this group Poland stands out with construction "output" of staggering 60%.

As we said, Texas is the holder of the largest construction projects in the United States. Even four of Texan cities are in the US "top 10" cities with the construction "boom" effect: Austin, Houston, Dallas and San Antonio. They have all recorded double-digit growth in employment in the construction sector until 2014, but because of its oil wealth and expansion of railway infrastructure, further increase is expected.

As political and economic influences have a domino effect on any field of economy, the construction industry included, it is necessary to take all these positive assessments with a certain degree of caution.

The question is how the present global political turmoil and large population migrations will affect economies of the above mentioned countries. Will the positive predictions for the construction industry stay intact or are they seriously threatened by the current geopolitical disturbances? It remains to be seen. But the fact is - no industry can exist on its own and everything in life is connected.

What do you think?